Power Rankings - week 7

Power Rankings - week 7

Was Week 7 a blip on the radar or a fundamental demographic shift?

It's getting down to crunch time. At least three contestants were partially anointed this week by TPTB. A fourth was partially anointed by the public. I expect one of them to be the fully anointed one within the next two weeks at the very latest. As always, the Power Rankings (My ownership of the AI PR franchise remains a cornerstone of my retirement plan, along with the all important pseudo copyright which is also mine), reflects who would win AI if it ended this week.

6. Elliott Yamin - Poor guy, he can't get a break. Yes, no bottom three this week for him! However, his personality disorder (not having one) continues to keep him from coming even close to winning. Everyone knows it and now it's time for his supporters (the pure talent demo) to admit it. It's over Elliott and you're next. Leave now before you become the AI5 Scott Sabol. Two weeks from now, if you are still here, you will officially have become a joke.

5. Chris Daughtry - The first of the three partial anointees this week. He listened to Simon's advice and got major props coming from the dreaded first position. The problem is that he didn't change any minds, or even influence them, among those who do not support him. His support is now a half mile wide and an eighth of an inch deep. Daughtry is one off week from becoming AI5's demographic Humpty Dumpty. If he falls off the wall, all TPTB's men won't be able to put Humpty Dumpty Daughtry back together again. He gets the benefit of most of Ace's supporters though and that, plus (perhaps) a more motivated fan base will make next week reminiscent of Arte Johnson, verrrrry interesting.

4. Paris Bennett - Have the Fantasiacs and the large majority of African-Americans simply stopped voting, as AI became the top rated show in black households last week, or did they think she was such a mortal lock that they took the week off? She best hope the latter because she's in the finals if they did while she's out if the former. Wheel out Arte Johnson one more time.

3. Katharine McPhee - McPheever is the second partial anointee this week. Simon's comment went right up to the line of AI title succession but stopped just short. Problem is, Kitty Kat has just a wee bit more personality and stage presence than Elliott and that's not good. Her soccer moms need to come back and vote rather than rely on Tivo for her adventures. She's picked up the gay and lesbian supporters of Ace as well as a significant amount of their demo overall. She's also starting to close in on Pickler's demo of being the most popular female although she has a ways to go before Kellie starts to sweat. The problem is Catwoman is moving so slow in terms of showmanship and acquiring more support that time may run out on her. She will pick up most of Elliott's supporters, after next week, who will stay with her through thick and thin the rest of the way. Those are the kinds of demos that everyone needs to be a serious AI contender. That's a start but she needs to jump start crossovers from the serious contenders. She will need a strong majority of either Daughtry's or Pickler's supporters to win.

2. Kellie Pickler - She survives one of the worst top 12 performances in AI history and improves her ranking. That's Superman like power that commands respect. She is living testament that honesty is the best policy when it comes to self-assessment. She earned some major props from both her supporters and non-supporters this week. The non- supporters will be the key to a top 3 or finals run for her. I've been amazed by how many non-Pickler fans appear to have started towards a change of heart as a result of her very candid self-evaluation a day ago. On its own, it was the moment that might prove to be the decisive one of AI5 if she wins.

1. Taylor Hicks - 'You may or may not be the highest vote getter'. Yeah, right Seacrest, how did you keep from laughing hysterically after you said that? I am very confident that he was and by a significant margin, albeit not 50.1 percent of the vote. He's the final partially anointed one this week via Simon's 'magic' snap. Add another 250 pounds to the Taylor gorilla which now measures in at 1500 pounds. At 2000, we have our American Idol. He still needs 500 additional pounds. That's the bad news. The good news is that AI5 may be a war of attrition so he may not need the full weight to win. The Soul Patrol is starting to look like the second coming of the Claymates with the fires of revenge emanating like lasers from their eyes. In a vote for vote match up, Hicks has more diehard supporters, right now, with only Pickler having similar (albeit lesser) numbers which bodes well for the (im)probable final two showdown from what anyone thought back when the final 12 was selected.

Points to ponder: 1.) Kellie, next week, could bounce back right to the top spot by just putting forth a good, complete, product next week. 2.) I expect TPTB to designate their anointed one next week. It's too risky to go to the top five without it. 3.) AI5 may well be the first AI where the winner triumphs by surviving rather than dominating the competition. How that translates to $$$ down the line doesn't sound too good on the surface. 4.) The fact that Kellie wasn't in the bottom three says more about her strong overall support than anyone might imagine. 5.) Love songs with Bocelli comes close to a repeat of this week's theme.

That's it for me right now. I'm going to be on the West Coast next week (all of California, Washington, Arizona and Nevada) and I might be at the next live show as our West Coast office has worked a little magic of its own. I thank you for taking the time to read this latest edition of the Power Rankings and your comments are, as always, welcome.

He means that not having a personality is the disorder.

says...

That's a good one and I think it's pretty funny.

However if we assumed that both won AI5 in similar alternate universes....the ROI on Kellie would be millions of dollars more than Elliott.

Zob, I don't have anything against Elliott, not at all. I'm just using what I'm told by people during the week and doing the PR.

He's liked by others, probably, because he is a nice guy. I've no reason to doubt that. His health story and life is, in some ways, inspirational. I know he is the poster child for most everyone who wants AI to be a search for the absolute best singer in the contest. However, is that group truly representative or more qualified than any other demographic to say they 'know' he is just that?

The joke part referred to the fact that everyone left is a more serious, and credible, contestant to win. We're not talking talent alone, here again, but the complete package to make the most bucks for TPTB. I would think that TPTB will seriously start to sweat bullets if they think they may have to market him should he come closer to winning.

Of all the people in AI history to inherit the Nikki McKibbin, Scott Sabol, etc. distinction, I will say that it is fair to say that Elliott is the most talented of the group.

Not from you, anyway. And me, I've had him at the head of my list since week one! So, what's wrong with us?

He is no worse in that department than Katharine.

Here's a thought, that *none* of the rest of the contestants appeal across the board like Elliot, so his support is an inch deep - and 3,000 miles wide!

Perhaps that's exactly what has kept him in, in contrast with the other contestants, Elliot has picked up that mysterious Savol demographic, whatever it was, that shoots for inoffensive, plus or minus a little talent.

Hey, lookit this, wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Savol

Bob, I'd be curious to know - what was your take on Clay Aiken during AI2? I can't imagine you would have tagged him to win, but did you have *any* idea he'd go on to sell the way he has?

Thanks,

JX, there's nothing wrong with you/us (supporters of Elliott). He's over his head in this, though, and that's the issue. People, in general, across the country are not warming up to him. However, to his credit, the group of people (not really a demo, but for discussion purposes, I'll refer to them as that) who are adamant about this being a competition to find the best singer, regardless of whether that person brings in $10,000. overall....are all getting fiercely united behind Elliott.

He has Katharine beat. She jokes, at least a bit. Plus, candidly, a boring attractive woman will sell more than a boring, average looking guy. Advantage Katharine.

A very nice turn of the phrase. Props to you for it. However, we are 180 degrees opposite in that view.

I was a little harsh on the joke part for the sake of punching things up. However, of all the people to get this deep, talented or not, Elliott may well be remembered as the one who really could have won if it were purely a singing competition.

V, I was in the tank for Aiken from the first time I heard him. I've bought his albums and paid cash to see him perform. I'd do so again. I had little doubt he would sell and sell well.

Taylor, I think, is the analogy to Clay this year, not Elliott. I've encountered a number of Claymates who are looking forward to exacting revenge for what they regard as AI's greatest mistake in Ruben winning.

Clay worked within the system to improve and become the lovable nerd. Elliott just doesn't have that within him. If he should win, he would undertake Ruben as the least $$$$ productive winner IMHO.

That doesn't mean I don't think he is a bad guy. Far from it, he seems like a very decent young man and I'd be happy to have him as a neighbor. I think he has some type of professional career ahead of him but I'm not sure where or to what extent.

Wow, so Bob Rudd is a *Claymate*!

As loathe as I am to admit it, I think you're probably right. I'm an Elliott fan, but Taylor has a combination of personality and performance skills that really seem to go over. And his 'goofiness' certainly makes him a closer analogy to Aiken, yes. While I'm not enamoured of Taylor's voice and would never buy his CD, I do find his performances pretty enjoyable and wouldn't mind seeing him win AI. He'll be getting my votes when Elliott goes home.

<snip>

Well, after your Scott Savol reference earlier, I do appreciate you clearing that up...I'd hate to have to throw my cell phone at you!

Thanks again

No, not a Claymate. There's no web site visits, t-shirts and those sorts of things on my part. OTOH, I am a strong supporter of CDs, concerts etc. I don't care about what he had for breakfast, etc. So, sorry but no Claymate here....not that there's anything wrong with that.

I suspect he will be getting a lot of crossover support as other favorites depart. His strength is increasing such that he doesn't need anywhere near a majority of the new crossovers to win. He could probably be the third choice of everyone and still win.

I recently had my cell phone stolen. Took about 5 minutes to deactivate it and another 30 to get a replacement. I could live with both of those, however, rekeying the numbers, email addys etc. really hacked me off even more than the crime.

As always, it is my pleasure, you're welcome!

Just bending some of the metaphors you like to use. Bob, you make a lovely case, but do not explain how Elliot survives, without even excursion into the bottom three! Me, I'm just grasping at straws.

Eh. If you could mash the positive talents of the remaining six into a single hermaphroditic body (about the size of Mandisa), the total talent would barely do to win the contest on the merits of the vocals.

That was almost a good save.